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Source: Opinion Polling for the German 2017 Federal Election

Until we see the results of those elections, it’s difficult to predict what is likely in the negotiation process. Whether or not the EU’s stance is some sort of negotiation bluff, the political makeup may be far different in December than it is today.

Will chancellor Merkel be around after the German national elections on September 17?.

Will Italy hold an election this year? Will Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement win?.

Will Marine le Pen win the French national election on May 7?.

If the UK refuses to go along, and it won’t, what the heck will the EU do? Merkel’s statements about not wanting to punish the UK, do not align with her hardening stance that undoubtedly does punish the UK. Let’s also not forget that Brexit has become a religious battle. But France, Germany, and Italy pretty much hold the EU’s cards. That process has not started yet.”įor a change, I mostly disagree with the Eurointelligence assessment.įor sure, there is not a united front.

Once both sides are confronted with the actual costs of Brexit, they might conclude that they want to minimize those costs. We noted a recent comment from Sigmar Gabriel that the EU should not penalize the UK, which we know is also the position of Angela Merkel. That is only apparently so because the negotiations have not yet started, so we are still in the sound-bite stage with lots of reference to “cherry-picking” and the like. And a recent Eurointelligence report commented: “It is a mistake to think, as some commentators do, that the EU is strong and united in its approach to Brexit. The article labeled the stance “preliminary”. “Any Article 50 agreement will have to include the UK’s assurances that it will honor the financial commitments it undertook as an EU member state.”

“We agree with the commission,” said one German official, referring to the so-called divorce clause of the EU treaty. “The cheque should be around €60 billion that’s what the European Commission has calculated and this will be part of the negotiations,” he told Bloomberg. Such stances are preliminary since EU member states have still to take a formal position.Ĭhristian Kern, the Austrian chancellor, confirmed the commission’s €60bn estimate. France is uncompromising on the estimated €60bn bill, while Spain is more wary of attempts to “punish” Britain. German and Italian officials say they support Michel Barnier, the chief EU negotiator, in seeking progress on divorce terms as an opening step. Today, the Financial Times reported Germany and Italy back European Commission on Brexit.īerlin and Rome are backing the European Commission’s plan to rule out starting trade talks with Britain until the UK gives assurances on a multibillion-euro Brexit bill and citizens’ rights.